Is This Worth It?

How much risk am I taking on? Is this worth it?

A pre-project breakdown of the numbers.

Aka, How much risk am I taking on? Is this worth it?

Let’s break it down like this…

The market, for simplicity sake, produces $100,000 annually as the current Total Addressable Market.

M&W’s 2 shops drive about $5,000. (Let’s assume they’ll sign.)

43%* chance of failure to deliver because…

1) I may not understand the problems like I think I do.

Not too likely because I studied ‘em for 4 months before acting.

2) I may underestimate the technical complexity.

While, no question I will overlook plenty of complexity at first glance — a lock, in fact — I doubt this will happen because my anger at my losses will not let me get deterred. Plus, a win for me is a win for M&W’s shops.

Alignment!

Having these points of alignment is a magical fuel to get me through doldrums. Entrepreneurs frequently need to pull magic out of thin air to keep moving forward, and I collect these whenever possible.


So, this leaves a 57% chance to make $5k ARR.

And this won’t be true until full product delivery, so revenue for 2018 cannot even climb to $5,000.

Okay. Let’s go with a likely 2018 revenue of, oh, $1,500.

That ain’t much for a whole bunch of risk.

Is it worth it? Can’t tell yet. If it takes one minute to build, sure is.

I will just bet, though, creating a compliance service from scratch, solo and full-stack, with at least one major new point of ignorance will take a tad longer than one minute to build.


*thin air